It is dead because after years of being stuck at 1% of market share, it started to shrink. Now, Linux dropped to 0.8%.
Yes, the dream is over...Linux desktop is DEAD!
Still, some Linux advocates tried to defend their beloved, but dead penguin. They said that Linux is not dead because server Linux and super computing Linux is alive and well (actually, it is Windows the one who is cold as a meatloaf there).
However, that reasoning is faulty because supercomputing and server computing are completely different from desktop computing. Remember, the premise here is that DESKTOP LINUX is dead. Period. Sometimes the truth hurts, yes.
You just have to go to the nearest mainstream computer store and count how many computers sold there come with Linux preinstalled...
WAIT A MINUTE!!! This way of thinking is fallacious, too. It is as fallacious as counting servers to say that desktop Linux is alive!
We are talking about DESKTOP LINUX, remember? What does that mean? Well, that is pretty self-explanatory: it means desktop computers that RUN Linux. We are not talking about sales figures here. We are talking about desktop computers. Sales figures are sales figures; desktop computers are desktop computers. These are different concepts as the realities they embody.
You may say that sold computers with Linux preloaded are almost inexistent and you may be right. But that does not mean that desktop computers running linux are inexistent. That's as false as saying that pirated Windows copies that can be downloaded are an urban legend because no sales figures reflect their existence. Are you reading this from an inexistent pirated Windows computer, by any chance? Well, I wrote this from an inexistent Linux computer! How about that?
Well, what about the information taken from monitoring sites online? We have two problems there: how can we tell if those computers online represent faithfully our reality? You may go to the park and count all the pigeons there and say that the stained ones are the majority, but you cannot say that they account for all the pigeons in the world, can you? The other problem is worse: online traffic depends on the content of the site. Taking the numbers of those sites as true would in turn enable me to say that most computers in the world run Linux (most of my visitors use a Linux computer...maybe because this blog is about Linux? Nahh!)
Back to the market, people usually think that it is the only true reality. What about those who have no money to be part of the market? They do exist, in case you didn't know, and they are not dead, either. They struggle every single day to beat their harsh reality. Ganesh Prasad stated that the market is now the politically correct way to solve all problems. But the market, as we have seen, doesn't recognise the existence of those who have nothing to offer as suppliers and nothing to pay as consumers. They are invisible people. They may be invisible to the market, but they do exist and are millions.
Well, it's pretty much the same case with Linux. It may be invisible to the market (although those figures are still questionable), but even so, being invisible to one reality does not mean being dead in all the others. How many people buy a Windows computer (because they have no option,as it is in my country) and then wipe that OS away to replace it with Linux? That counts as a Windows computer to the market, sure...but we are talking about desktop computers, not about sales. What OS does the computer run? If it is a desktop computer and runs Linux, what is it, then? Not hard to tell, huh?
Again, the truth does hurt sometimes.
With all due respect... I think this subject is brought from the dead from time to time by those in our midst and outside it fishing for flamewars, pointless debates, ergo, web traffic :)
ResponderEliminarI'm not saying this blogger, or I wouldn't comment here :) But some dude resuscitated the endless story the other day... and we're still on about it on the internets. Seriously: who knows what anyone's share of the desktop market is? The only thing well-established is that no one knows. What with pirated MS products and our distros that don't require any kind of registration to use and so on... and internet statistics being the only data to go by, no one will ever know.
Our energy should be spent on promoting, promoting, promoting Linux, if we want more numbers, and on contributing to our favorite projects as best we can. There are free resources on the web to virally promote and yet I don't see any sponsor/community really take full advantage of it. And I know it's not as simple as that. There's more to switching OS's that falling victim to hype. But it has been known that hype can achieve a bit (e.g., (cr)Apple).
And while I do wish for Linux to be as widely used as possible... because it's inherently superior to Windows, safer, saner (what with cost, hardware requirements and so on), and because more users and developers rallying around it ought to make it even better... selfishly speaking, I don't care. Even within the Linux world I'm in the minority because of my computing habits, which exlude using full DEs and whatnot.
Bottom line, we should always look to improve and promote Linux and free software, but in the meantime, one percent? oh well. We few, we lucky few, then :)
People sometimes have a hard time reconciling numbers, social factors, and the realities that they want to see. For instance, according to national reports, no public computers run Linux. Thus, I'm typing this comment from an Ubuntu system that does not exist.
ResponderEliminarAnd it's not mine, either: I don't Ubuntu. Wait a second...if I use this computer, I do!
See? One sees what one wants, and Ballmer wants to see Tux in a grave. Whether or not that is a reality, we have to see in time.
My eyes tell me otherwise, though.
@ Gasha,
ResponderEliminarThanks a lot. To be honest, I don't care about numbers, either, but some people do. The problem is that they believe numbers are the only factual reality, and in some cases, it is not like that.
I wrote this post basically to remind others as well as myself that some realities simply escape numbers but are as actual as their counterparts that can be quantified.
@ Mechatotoro!
ResponderEliminarYou Ubuntu...I Ubuntu...WE Ubuntu! :P
Thanks for your comment! Funny and true.
"how can we tell if those computers online represent faithfully our reality? You may go to the park and count all the pigeons there and say that the stained ones are the majority, but you cannot say that they account for all the pigeons in the world, can you? The other problem is worse: online traffic depends on the content of the site. Taking the numbers of those sites as true would in turn enable me to say that most computers in the world run Linux (most of my visitors use a Linux computer...maybe because this blog is about Linux? Nahh!) "
ResponderEliminarThose are both the same problem.
I wish people who keep pointing up this 'problem' would actually look at the statistics. One of the commonly-cited metrics comes from Wikimedia.org: that's where the Wikipedia servers are hosted. They have Linux pegged down around 2%. It's quite hard to argue that there's a ton of secret desktop Linux users out there who never read Wikipedia.
@ Adamwill,
ResponderEliminarInterestingly enough, your numbers actually show an increase of Linux computers, don't they? You are talking about a 2% while Linux killers talk about 0.8%. Thanks a lot for your statistics, they are actually encouraging! :)
@ Adamwill,
ResponderEliminarStatistics, when objective, provide at best fragments of a reality....never the whole of it. Statistics 101
Non é ancora morto!
ResponderEliminarI find hard to believe that Linux is dead.
Intel is a company that has well-known agreements with Microsoft. In fact, both companies have worked together for more than 20 years. Despite of this lucrative relationship, there is a singular aspect that becomes a little bit ironic to me. A friend of mine, who was hired a couple of years ago by Manpower to work in Intel Costa Rica as a “Operaria Especializada en Inspección Visual y Reparación de Capacitores Electrónicos”, told me that some special equipments in the facilities of Intel use Linux. As she mentioned, the AOI machines, which are in charge of producing and repairing “Capacitores de Chip,” uses Linux operating system. Interestingly, Linux is helping Intel to produce laptops that will use Window’s operating system in the future when they become fully assembled. This anecdote illustrates that Linux has not dead. Rather, this operating system is still a extremly useful tool that is being used around the world by important companies. Therefore, even though the idea that everything that is free lacks quality is widely spread, that thought does not apply to Linux.
Linux is not dead.
Pérez, A.